I don't know who or what films will do well in the Academy Awards this evening, but I thought I'd throw out a few thoughts on what I'd like to see happen. So this is actually more along the lines of a wish list than any serious attempt at handicapping.
Best Supporting Actor: I have no real favorites in this category. I liked Geoffrey Rush a lot in
The King's Speech, and Mark Ruffalo (
The Kids Are Alright) is almost always good, so I wouldn't mind seeing either of them win. Christian Bale was great in
The Fighter, is a really splashy role. I didn't see
Winter's Bone (John Hawkes) or
The Town (Jeremy Renner).
Best Supporting Actress: I'm pulling for Hailee Steinfeld for
True Grit. Every few years a kid wins one of these awards, and it usually feels like a stunt, but I really do think she gave a great performance, and a more memorable one than the other candidates (though I did not see Jacki Weaver in
Animal Kingdom-- in fact, I don't think I even heard of that film).
Best Actor: I've liked James Franco ever since he played DeSario in
Freaks and Geeks (one of the all-time great TV shows), so I'm pulling for him even though I have no intention of ever seeing
127 Hours (afraid it will trigger my claustrophobia). Of the performances I did see, I think I'd pick Jesse Eisenberg's in
The Social Network as the most impressive, though if Jeff Bridges (
True Grit) made it two in a row, I wouldn't consider that undeserved. Of course, every one is picking Colin Firth, so it's probably a moot point.
Best Actress: I've only seen two of the performances in this category, Natalie Portman's (
Black Swan) and Annette Bening's (
The Kids Are Alright). I've liked both much more in other movies, but I'm kind of pulling for Bening because I have a feeling that Portman will own this award for the next fifteen or twenty years (much like Meryl Streep did for a long stretch in the eighties and nineties).
Best Director: To me David Fincher has been the most interesting director working in American movies for the past several years, and
The Social Network stands with his other great movies (
Zodiac, Fight Club, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) as part of a fantastic winning streak. I'd like to see him rewarded by the Academy, and having seen all five of the films represented in this category, I think he truly is a cut above the others, especially in taking a very verbally-oriented story and translating it into a compelling visual experience.
Best Film: Based on what I wrote above, I can definitely see
The Social Network as a winner in this category as well, but in fact I think I'd like to see the Oscar go to
Inception, which I believe to be the most audacious effort among the nominees. It was a true movie-movie experience, combining action and effects with ideas that were at times convoluted but never less than engaging (not the least was its implicit link of movies and dreams). I strongly doubt that
Inception can win, but I have a feeling that as the years go by it will be recognized as the most starkly original of this year's class, and hold up really well in retrospect. There are several other nominees that would be reasonable selections, and that I really liked a lot (
True Grit,
The King's Speech,
The Social Network), but I think Inception is the one most likely to stick with me over time.